NEW DELHI: Congress looks set to sweep Haryana and Arunachal Pradesh, and alongwith its alliance partner NCP, appears to have a slight edge over
the rival Shiv Sena-BJP combine, but may fall short of the half-way mark in Maharashtra. Counting of votes for three assembly polls will be taken up on Thursday.
The outcome of the latest round of electoral battle will be watched keenly by the political observers, besides the stakeholders themselves. A 3-0 verdict for Congress will re-establish the ruling party’s credentials as the dominant pole of the Indian political scene. The bounce imparted to the party-workers by the results will be expected to carry forward in Jharkhand, which goes to polls less than two months later. Congress fared poorly in the state in the general election held earlier this year, and will approach the assembly polls on a more buoyant note if it retains power in the three states.
While BJP, the principal Opposition party in the country, is reconciled to remaining a fringe player in Haryana and Arunachal Pradesh, it is hoping to upset the Congress-NCP combine’s applecart in Maharashtra by emerging as the frontrunner in the state alongwith its alliance partner, the Shiv Sena. The saffron alliance has remained out of power in the politically-crucial state for a little over nine years now, and third consecutive defeat will come as a morale-crushing blow. The BJP’s winning-potential, already suspect because of a string of electoral defeats, the latest and the most important of which was the rout suffered by it in the Lok Sabha polls, will come under a renewed scrutiny from its most ardent of admirers. Its partners in the NDA will have an additional reason to rethink their alliance strategies.
With BJP president Rajnath Singh on the way out and Mr L K Advani contemplating a political sanyas, the party, which has remained rudderless and directionless for quite some time now, will become more vulnerable to a dominant RSS control in the event of a washout.
The verdict will have a more decisive impact over the fate the BJP’s alliance partner in Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena. A defeat for the party, and a better-than-expected show by MNS is certain to sound the death-knell for the party founded by Mr Bal Thackeray. Conversely, a victory for the Shiv Sena-BJP combine will set to rest doubts about the former’s future, and Mr Uddhav Thackeray’s leadership abilities. His cousin will be left staring at a bleak future, having already rendered himself as a political outcast by his vituperative anti-north Indian stance.
For BJP, it is imperative that it does well in Maharashtra. Its performance in the state will determine the nature of its relations with the Nagpur establishment, besides raising questions about its standing in the Indian polity.
Victory in the three states will not only confirm Ms Sonia Gandhi’s status as the most powerful player, but will also establish her son Rahul as a leader in his own right.