SNAP POLL, GAINS FOR LABOR'S OPPONENTS IN SENATE
A so-called double dissolution election does carry Senate danger for Labor.
A new upper house could see gains for greens and independents at the cost of weakened conservatives. Such a Senate, no easier for Rudd to manage, would be more hostile to business and growing Chinese investment in major resource companies.
The greens and independents also tend to favour stronger regulation than conservatives. Labor is suggesting it will bring down a tough budget in May to rein in deficit spending, but that could be difficult to deliver if it hurts families or imposes tougher income testing on welfare. Greens would also want stronger climate laws.
Economic concerns that usually dominate Australian elections would take more of a back seat, despite a series of anticipated interest rate rises kicked off by the reserve bank's lifting of rates to 3.25 percent this month.
Another 0.25 percent rise is expected in November on a path towards rates of around 4.0 percent in 2010 and possibly 5-6 percent by 2011. An early poll would precede some rises and a budget putting Labor under pressure to contain spending and reduce debt.
REGULAR ELECTION IN NOVEMBER 2010, ECONOMIC ISSUES DOMINATE
A regular election would be dominated by the economy, but would not bring major policy switches given Rudd's dominance in opinion polls.